In the extensive, detailed essay 2003 And Beyond, Andrew Grygus surveys the business computing scene and discovers that it’s all about Microsoft. PC makers such as HP, Gateway, and even Dell are on a death spiral: Microsoft is already showing the intent to sell MS-branded home computing machines with XBox, XBox2, and Home Gateway. Most software publishers are dead or will die within five years: Microsoft is slowly but surely expanding into all parts of the market. High end hardware and software and applications that require extensive customization may escape from the Redmond hug in the medium term but if BillG’s crew continues to succeed eventually they’ll get up there too.
All is not hopeless. Microsoft faces challenges in getting where this picture leads. There are Linux, Apache, and the rest of the open source packages which organizations are turning to in increasing numbers, enough that MS has now cited it as a top competitive threat in SEC filings. There is significant resistance to its latest licensing plan. There is even the possibility that stagnant core market growth and continued arrogant behavior will trip them up.
This is a very long essay and some parts seem pasted in from older essays, but probably worth the read if you want to look at our business from a different perspective.
[via Winterspeak]
BillSaysThis 