One solution: Partition Afghanistan

Carlton Meyer, editor of G2mil, a warfare research portal, looks at the Military Options in Afghanistan. He cites and analyzes five variants of military solutions and their costs in money and American deaths:

  1. Cruise missile attacks ($4 billion – 0 dead)

  2. Carpet Bombing strikes ($6 billion – 4 dead

  3. Ranger Raids ($2 billion – 50 dead)

  4. Send in helicopter brigades ($20 billion – 1000 dead)

  5. Land several divisions and overrun Afghanistan ($100 billion – 6000 dead)

He ends the list with what is really a political option: partition Afghanistan along ethnic lines and join those sections up with the appropriate (parent) country: Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran (Here’s his map showing the partition. He estimates the cost at $10 billion but as opposed to the other options all this money goes to economic and humanitarian aid to make the scheme work.

Meyer’s final analysis: “As for the problem of Afghanistan, just partition it and the problem is solved with little loss of life.” Not a bad idea at all.

RTFM, if you can lift it

Reuters reports that the first 3G Phone, from NTT DoCoMo in Japan, Debuts With Huge Manual, 945 pages for the standard model and more for the videophone model, expected to be more popular. Damn! RTFM for sure.

Springsteen is always popular, Scoble good too

Having a weblog entry that mentions Springsteen is always good for some Google hits. I was looking at the BillSaysThis referrers information just now and noticed nine hits from Google searches for Springsteen’s My City in Ruins. And eight hits from the Scobelizer too–and he linked to me, very nice, thanks Robert. Visitors are always welcome, I just love the ego boost!

Yesterday’s movie: 10 Things I Hate About You

Most teen movies go for the easy standard laughs. Writers Karen McCullah Lutz & Kirsten Smith, though, decided to see if they could transport Shakespeare into the mileau of the last days of the 20th century American high school. And they succeeded, I think; Colin Jacobson has an opposing opinion though. Julia Stiles and Larisa Oleynik star as the desirable but out of reach sisters and Heath Ledger and Joseph Gordon-Levitt play the boys who pursue them in this update of Taming of the Shrew. Larry Miller stretches a little to play the girls’ single father, an OB/GYN struggling to accept the departure of his wife several years before and accept that his daughters are becoming the same women as the young pregnant girls he sees in his office every day. Ledger, still with his natural dark hair (as opposed to the dyed blonde he’s worn since in The Patriot and A Knight’s Tale), is quite good and has a hilarious scene singing Frankie Valli’s Can’t Take My Eyes Off of You to Stiles accompanied by the school marching band in front of the afterschool athletic crowd.

Marshall Heyman, reviewing for the Daily Princetonian, makes a good point: “Nowhere in the film does any character account for 10 things he or she hates about someone else. In fact, nowhere in the film is the number 10 even mentioned.” There are lots of Shakespeare references though, including the girls’ family name and the prom theme.

Interestingly, some unknown person has put the complete script online, and so is Shakespeare’s original; for a laugh, see the ultracondensed version. Sidenote: this is another film produced by my non-relative Andrew Lazar

$20 Trillion in revenue available, sign up here

Michael Malone, a veteran tech pundit writing in Forbes ASAP, says that the next Internet can reboot America and bring in as much as $20 trillion in revenues to the companies lucky and smart enough to survive through the current consolidation/collapse. This revenue will cost $2 trillion to bring in, much of which would have to be spent by government on rebuilding and extending the nation’s 30-50 year old physical infrastructure, but will succeed based on the intersection of five trends: optical fiber, semiconductors, the Internet, online transactions, languages and interfaces (XML, SOAP, et al), and Real time enterprise computing. On the other hand, Excite@Home declared bankruptcy late yesterday.

Today’s book: Section 31: Cloak

In ST: Deep Space Nine, the Powers That Be at Star Tek World HQ introduced a creepy division within Starfleet named Section 31, which is authorized to do whatever is necessary to achieve UFP policy even though there are laws, rules, and ethics that preclude such action. The folks that do the Trek books decided they wanted in on such a gooey, morally ambiguous group too and have put out a four pack beginning with Cloak, in which Kirk and Spock have to deal with a mad scientist sponsored by Section 31. Interestingly, they tie the scientist into an extremely dangerous molecule called Omega which was first used (as far as I know) in the Star Trek universe in a Voyager episode. We also find out the origins of the group’s name, Section 31 of the Starfleet’s Charter, which refers to “an autonomous investigative agency.” Decent plot, a strong ‘guest star’ role (Jain Suni, also a fleeting love interest for Kirk), but the McCoy subplot gets thrown away with a backstage resolution.

Springsteen: My City in Ruin lyrics

This is the song, not yet released on any album, that Bruce Springsteen played on the Tribute to Heroes special. Lyrics only: My City Of Ruins. If you have an MP3 of this, please let me know. According to Backstreets, a Springsteen fan magazine, this is the fourth time Bruce has performed the song, and though many viewers must have assumed the song was inspired by the tragedy, it was actually written about, and performed the three previous times in, Asbury Park, NJ. Springsteen debuted the song at the 2000 holiday shows in Asbury Park.

Young Intelligent Hackers Against Terror

A group of U.K. techies does some freelance anti-terrorism work: Sudan Bank Hacked, Bin Laden Info Found. This is according to a German businessman and teen hacking prodigy named Kim Schmitz who claims the information has been supplied to the FBI. The FBI and other government offices have no comment, of course. Schmitz also notified the Sudanese bank. I have to wonder, though, why he is publicizing this now (other than for the obvious personal publicity reasons) since letting the opposition know of the success only helps them and does us no service.

Fantasy on a Late Suburban Afternoon

The Sun is sinking lower onto the horizon

Sending late rays of light straight in

Underneath the protection of the windshield visor

When I am stopped, once again, in the left turn lane

In front of me, there is a Toyota Corolla

Magenta, purple, deep red, just washed

And a flash of sunlight off the sideview mirror

Catches my eye, still waiting for the green light

I see a flash of long light brown hair while I look

Still turning my head, I see soft brown eyes

In the Corolla’s rearview mirror and a lipstick

That matches the car being applied to lovely lips

Using all the psychic energy at my command

Feeling the power inside thrilling me, pushing me

I send a burst of lust ahead to those mirrors

Hoping for a lucky bounce but the light turns green

Listing all the home page sayings

After being simply inundated by requests (eh, right), I’ve added a page that displays All the Quotes and Lyrics that show up in pseudo-random fashion at the top of the BillSaysThis homepage. And they’re in chronological order too, at no extra charge. Woohoo!

Enterprise: this show’s a keeper

Watched it, loved it, you must tune in next week. Enterprise has the goods and this time around franchise chiefs Rick Berman and Brannon Braga have put a lot of thought into setting up a seven year run. With Voyager, for example, there reportedly was internal debate right up until the beginning of the last season over whether, when, and how the lost crew would get back to Earth. Deep Space Nine had a great multi-year run with the Dominion War but this was not planned at the beginning. In this show, we are get (what will likely be) the major story line right in the first episode: the temporal cold war with the alien Suleiban as key enemies fronting for a far-future leader who we won’t get detailed information on until next season at the earliest. COOL!!!

Script Kiddies versus the terrorists

Eric Norlin, a post-modern marketing whiz and former NSA spook, explains how we can apply lessons from attacks on the Internet to fighting al Queda and that lot. He explores the similarities between a modern terrorist organization and the Internet: both are “loosely affiliated group of nodes that exhibit emergent properties.” So what damages one should have similar effects on the other and therefore distributed denial of service attacks, viruses, and targeting key nodes should have significant impact on the terrorists. Cool, post-modern fighting techniques.

Camaro/Firebird on Hiatus After 2002 Model Year

Yes, the beloved vehicles of so many teenage dreamers are going away, announced General Motors. Interestingly, nearly all of the workers at the plant which produces these cars are eligle to retire. Still, there goes 35 years of muscle car dreams but Mammon must be served and sales are down over 50% in the last ten years.

Starfleet seems to think we’re ready to begin our mission.

So says Captain Jonathon Archer in tonight’s premiere episode of Enterprise. Wow, I am so excited, so psyched to see this. Early reports are very, very positive, saying the new series will recharge the energy of the Trek franchise. Look for a report tomorrow!

Another bit of good news: Paramount gave the green light to start production on Star Trek: Nemesis, the tenth Star Trek movie; expect it in theaters in about a year. Again, early reports on the script by Gladiator writer and lifelong Trek fan John Logan are very positive, with lots of strong action and characters. Stuart Baird (the very cool Kurt Russell flick Executive Decision and U.S. Marshalls) will be directing and Digital Domain (James Cameron’s company, which also handled Lord of the Rings and Titanic) will provide special effects.

Lord of the Rings: excellent new trailer

Apple has posted a QuickTime version of the new Fellowship of The Ring trailer and if you have a highspeed web connection (or are willing to let your dial-up connection run all night), you must see it. This trailer has the clearest visuals yet of what director Peter Jackson’s Middle Earth looks like and the results are stunning down to very small details like flames running around the inside of The Ring.

Cool utility software

URL Capture from URL Toy Software, a shareware utility currently in beta testing, saves all Internet addresses in all open Internet Explorer windows and restores them on command; it can also be set save and restore on Windows shutdown and restart. I like this one and even helped edit the help file (my edits are not included in the version currently available for download).

Tribalism vs. Globalization

[Recent events engaged Jim Fitzgerald and myself in email conversation during which the basis for the following essay emerged. Most of the ideas are Jim’s thinking, elaborated, clarified, and otherwise edited by me. Still, send flamemail to me.]

The conflict between America and its allies and bin Laden and the other Islamic terrorists is really a battle between a new and an old adaptive strategy, tribalism and globalization. When the human race was young, small, widely dispersed, and challenged by basic survival, tribalism was an adaptive device that helped people cooperate to reduce risk. With tribalism you get an in-group/out-group mentality that is a liability in the current diverse and densely populated world. The Taliban represents this old adaptive model–tribal, closed, rigid–and they are railing against what are really evolutionary changes in cultural systems. When the tribes are separated with infrequent contact, everything’s ok. Maybe a few skirmishes when they do come in contact. When the tribes are forced to live together, though, life gets complicated.

Globalization, and not just in the economic sense but rather meaning the interconnection and interdependence of groups across national and other boundaries is the latest and so far highest level of human cultural evolution. In this general sense one might call it one-worldism except that few voices are calling for a single world government. This development values the diversity of individuals and encourages the contributions such diversity brings; it finally rings down the curtain on the view that just because someone does not belong to “my” group that person must be bad, wrong, put down, converted, or killed. We see remnants of tribalism in the Western nations in the campaigns of the anti-globalization protesters and our own religious fundamentalists (Falwell, McVeigh, Farrakhan), so this is not just another name for the division between fundamentalist Islamists and the rest of the world.

An anthropologist might view the world this way: Behaviors persist over the long term because they have some adaptive latent effect. Just what happens when a behavior is no longer adaptive is less clear but is most likely some transient response followed by disappearance of the behavior in the long term. Putting a quantity to the length of long term is difficult, as is understanding the nature of transient response. The transient response, historically, appears to be violence.

An anthropology professor at UC Santa Cruz once said that warfare was a form of rejection of the enemy’s cultural values. Consider current and past wars, including terrorism, in light of this assertion and see if it holds up. The reasons why we went to war against Japan and Germany during WWII are clear, but Vietnam is less obvious. We went to war against Iraq to move them out of Kuwait because we had a treaty with them and because the flow of oil is strategic to us. We went to war against Panama because they were enabling the Medellin Cartel to flood us with drugs.

Warfare between tribal groups in the distant past was probably an adaptive device as well. Cultures are conservative devices, the cultural systems of each group, and when taken as an indivisible whole constitute an adaptive mechanism for the group and preserve economically appropriate behavior. When one unique culture comes into contact with another, cultural sharing could weaken the belief system and the associated economically appropriate rituals, leading eventually to the demise of the tribe. Therefore, warfare against out-groups would preserve the integrity of the cultural system, and improve the chances for survival for the individuals in the group. With widely dispersed groups this is actually a good thing; it’s likely that different systems are required to adapt to differing economic environments, as different species do as well, so a little warfare following contact and then separation is a good thing. That said groups can and do borrow selectively from each other, which has occurred for thousands of years without always causing violence: the spread of agriculture, writing, spices, technology, and even ideas and religion as in the case of Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism.

Those cultures that accept diversity, in the most universal sense of the word, will survive. Those that do not accept diversity will be engaged in conflict and will not survive, or alternatively, if humanity does not have that capacity, none of us will survive. Thinking out loud, perhaps there will be conflict on such an enormous scale that population will revert to 2000 year ago levels with the whole process then to repeat until humanity is able to get past it.

If we don’t learn to live together in a connected global community we will destroy ourselves. That is the next step in our evolution. We hope we can do it.

p.s. An inspiring essay that touches on the topic as well is Steven Denbeste’s What are we fighting for? (http://denbeste.nu/essays/whyfight.shtml).

Jordan returns

While I might be referring to the Kingdom of Jordan’s return to a place of respect for standing with America this week, I’m actually referring to Michael Jordan. MJ apparently will announce today that he will return to the court with the Washington Wizards, the hapless team of which he has been the president and part-owner since January 2000. I have no real idea if this is a good thing or not, although it can hardly hurt a team that finished pretty much at the bottom of the pile since Wes Unseld retired, but some entertaining stats came out with the stories. The most interesting, IMO, is that Jordan has scored more points in his playing career to date than the combined total of all 16 current Wizards players, 35,265 to 34,391.