We were very fortunate to have David Akov, the Israeli Consul General for the Pacific Northwest, as our guest. Mr. Akov gave us his perspective on what’s been happening with Israel and its neighbors over the last two and a half years and how the region has changed, particularly since 9/11, from Arabs versus Jews to religious moderates versus religious extremists.
Akov presented his thesis as a series of benchmarks (or milestones, I don’t recall the exactw wording) beginning with the decision by then-Prime Minister Sharon and his government to change Israel’s process to one of unilateral disengagement, starting by a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
The leadership had hoped after the death of Yasir Arafat that the Palestineans would realize it was in their own best interest to turn away from terrorism but sadly that didn’t happen; seeing no partner on the other side with whom they could deal, the decision was made to move ahead anyway.
Sharon found that he had lost a big chunk of his Likud Party membership over this and so he split off and formed Kadima–the first time a nation’s governing leader bolted his own party midterm! Only a few weeks later Sharon had a massive stroke and he remains to this day comatose but his new party won the largest number of seats in the subsequent elections and formed a government with left-leaning Labor.
Jump ahead to last summer when Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon each kidnapped Israeli soldiers and in response the Israeli Defense Force invaded both territories. Akov said that, despite some perception that it was otherwise, he felt Israel achieved its most important goal in Lebanon.
Hezbollah (and other groups) now understand that if they cross a certain line there will be a major price to pay. Hezbollah had nearly its entire infrastructure expended or destroyed and a joint United Nations-Lebanese Army peacekeeping force is in place in southern Lebanon, providing a substantial buffer that has blocked the terrorists from launching rockets and other attacks into northern Israel.
The Palestineans, meanwhile, have seen their cause slip from the major casus belli to secondary due to the war in Iraq. The sectarian conflict there is starting to show moderates in the Arab world, from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and even, to a lesser extent, Syria, that Israel isn’t their biggest problem. The real danger is from the radical Islamic groups, who, as John Robb has pointed out time and again, are just as opposed to the House of Saud as to the State of Israel.
The only way out, Akov told us, is a combination of carrot and stick. That is, enable and encourage the moderates to step up to the plate against the suicide bombers. Which ought to, closing the circle to my opening ‘graphs, develop a partner with whom Israel and the West can negotiate peace. Real peace.
I don’t necessarily agree with everything he said but certainly he’s more in touch and involved with these events than me, plus there had to be some element of his being constrained by his position as an official of the government of Israel.
Once again, thanks to Fenwick & West, especially Barry Kramer, Steve Levine, Randall Farmer and Kathy Dore, for sponsoring our use of their terrific meeting facilities.
Next meeting is set for May 8 when I hope to have an event focused on Nanotechnology. Please try and join us if you can, our events are free and open to the general public.
BillSaysThis 