After the last NFL season, spent a bunch of time looking at the head coaching changes in the NFL (and a couple of colleges too) in the 01-02 CoachingGoRound. With a third of the season gone, and some amusement coming out of DC, this seems like a good time to see how well the new boys are working out.
The six changes: Steve Spurrier left the University of Florida, where it seems he was more important that people realized, for the Redskins. The man he replaced in D.C., Marty Schottenheimer, took over in San Diego. Tony Dungy left the Bucs for the Colts, prompting the Glazer Brothers to trade draft picks and cash to the Raiders for Jon Gruden, and the Raiders promoted Bill Callahan in turn. Finally, the Carolina Panthers replaced 49er retread with the Giant’s defensive coordinator John Fox.
If we had held this review a few weeks ago, you might have mistakenly thought all these teams’ owners and general managers were geniuses. Carolina, coming off a 1-15 season, was 3-0. So were Oakland and San Diego, Indy and Tampa Bay were 2-1, and the Redskins were 1-2 but coming off a very potent pre-season. So what happened after that?
The Panthers got the biggest smack in the face–zero wins in the four games since. The biggest issue here is injuries. First and foremost, Rodney Peete was turning in a Comeback Player of the Year-level performance until he hurt a knee which required a month in the trainer’s room and surgery. His replacement, Chris Weinke (who was last year’s starter as a rookie but lost the job in training camp to Peete) suffered a concussion early in the next game. Stanford rookie Randy Fasani came on next, playing most of the Panther’s last game but he was not nearly ready and the Kitties went down 30-0 to Atlanta; Fasani looks likely to start this Sunday against Tampa Bay. The remainder of the schedule looks mighty tough–hello, NFC South–and the team will be lucky to end the season 6-10. Which, come to think of it, plus five in the win column in one year is not so bad
The ‘Skins put up another 1-2 trilogy and Spurrier seems to be playing musical quarterbacks. First Danny Wuerffel had the chair, but he got hurt and is now apparently third on the depth chart. Second, Shane Matthews got a turn but, as he’s shown throughout his pro career Matthews is pretty mediocre and so was benched after two starts. Rookie Patrick Ramsey, a strong arm out of LSU, got the nod after a strong relief effort in Week 5. What next? Ramsey has a lousy Week 7 (what a surprise coming in a game at Green Bay, possibly the league’s best team so far this year) and is benched in favor of Matthews. Clearly, Spurrier is just killing time until he can draft Rex Grossman this Spring. In the meantime, Steve wants more control over personnel decisions. Speculation has already begun in the D.C. media over whether or not he’s already anxious to get back to a college job.
Oakland also went 1-2, the two losses coming in the last two games. Without a lot of help, the loss to San Diego at home, is going to relegate the Black and White to wild card status on no more than 11 wins. Jerry Rice is still a great receiver but he isn’t good enough to be number one any more, Tim Brown never was, Jerry Porter is going to be next year’s, and Al Davis made a big mistake keeping James Jett over Reggie Barlow. The defense came out rock solid, with nine new starters, but injuries to Charles Woodson and Philip Buchanon have opened huge holes for Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson; reminder: Priest Homes and Garrison Hearst/Kevin Barlow are coming to play the next two games. And let’s face it, Sebastian Janikowski just isn’t getting the job done, missing a 27 yarder that would have won last week’s game.
The Colts repeated the 2-1 result. And they do play in the surprisingly weak AFC South. But the loss, this past Monday night to Pittsburgh, showed some surprising weaknesses from Peyton Manning (is he looking over his shoulder at younger brother Eli?) and the defense. Indy does have a decent chance to take seven more W’s and with them, the division title. An opening round matchup against probable wild carders Denver, Oakland or the resurgent Bills will prove too difficult, though, and send these boys home early.
Tampa Bay is a toss up. They’re 5-2 with a solid shot to capture at least a wild card slot and maybe even the division if New Orleans falters after a strong start. The Saints look like they’re for real, though, with the heartbreaking 22 point comeback win against the 49ers last week. The Bucs’ offense has struggled, as usual, and now starting QB Brad Johnson has a broken rib. Where was Keyshawn and Mike Alstott in the loss to Philadelphia? Will QB Rob Johnson make a difference? The last four weeks have seen the team scoring 35, 20, 17, and 10 points. Looks like another one and out trip to the playoffs unless Chucky boy gets a Johnson hot.
San Diego has to be the surprise team of the year–but that was what everyone said last year too, when the Bolts finished 5-11 by losing their last nine. This year’s model seem much more mature and aware of how to do their job, as evidenced by the way they hung on to take the overtime win against in a major statement game against the Raiders. Drew Brees and Tomlinson are growing into a powerful combination, receiver Curtis Conway is having what could be a career year and the defense already has three players with at least four sacks each. The Chargers should battle the Broncos for the division title and could easily go 12-4 if they avoid serious injury.
Forecast: Schottenheimer, Dungy, and Gruden are safe bets to return in 2003 barring complete collapses. Fox should not be in trouble as long as he ends up 5-11 or better. Callahan is a question mark: was a he holding the spot for a year until Davis could make a deal with someone he really wants, like Dennis Green? He needs to at least reach the AFC Conference Championship Game, if not the Super Bowl, to guarantee his job. Spurrier has to contend not only with his own expectations but also with those of petulant, immature team owner Dan Snyder; even Vegas bookmakers should be hard-pressed to put a line up on this one.
BillSaysThis 