More on oil and security

Recently I argued against the Bush Administration’s claim that drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, ecological considerations aside, is important for national security reasons. Now the Economist chimes in with an article that surely supports my position. In it, various experts’ opinions on the amount of global oil reserves (and therefore years of supply) are discussed. The opinions on when the supply runs out range from early in the next decade to at least 70 years; one of the key differences underlying these estimates is technology. As a firm believer in our ability to continue to make significant strides in technology, I would have to side with the more optimistic experts but I still believe we are better served by keeping our own oil in the ground as long as possible. What if the pessimists are right?