College football: Upsets lead to predictions

I was challenged to put my forecast for this week’s AP Top 10 down on paper but I prefer bits to graphite. Nebraska and Oklahoma were the number 2 and 4 teams before losing yesterday, meaning that neither team will make it to the Big 12 championship game next Saturday nor will they be getting the Big 12’s automatic Bowl Championship Series bid; I expect Nebraska is likely to get an at-large BCS slot though. Anyway, here’s how I see the AP Top 10 (the writer’s poll, not the coaches poll) that will be published later today:

1. Miami: Unquestionable after their 65-7 destruction of #12 Washington.

2. Florida: Rex Grossman is driving this team and will pass all over Tennessee next week.

3. Texas: Just because they played yesterday.

4. Oregon: Just because they didn’t play yesterday.

5. Nebraska: 62-36? The Cornhuskers don’t give up that many points most seasons.

6. Tennessee: Not going to stay this high for long.

7. Maryland: ACC champs, throwing aside Florida State and their nine years on top.

8. Oklahoma: No chance to repeat now.

9. BYU: Sorry boys but you actually have to play teams that win more than twice to have your wins mean anything.

10. Illinois: Thursday win against Northwestern not impressive enough to move up.

BCS Bowl pick bonus: I think Miami will beat Florida by less than 10 in the Rose Bowl to win the national title. Oregon will beat Illinois in the Fiesta. Texas beats Maryland in the Sugar Bowl. Nebraska beats Tennessee in the Orange. I’m a little doubtful that Tennessee makes a BCS game after they lose to Florida next week but even more doubtful that the Big 12 gets three teams in (goodbye Oklahoma) and that BYU even gets a consideration. I was thinking of the SEC West winner but Auburn fell out of the Top 20 by losing to Alabama and Alabama, the only other team with a chance to win the division isn’t even ranked.

Update: Well, not too bad. I had the first four, five and six switched, seven straight on, my ten was eight, I didn’t even have nine, and my nine was ten:

1. Miami

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Oregon

5. Tennessee

6. Nebraska

7. Maryland

8. Illinois

9. Colorado

10. BYU

Bowl picture: ESPN is speculating that Colorado may get the second BCS at-large bid even if they lose to Texas Saturday. I don’t see it, even though Tennessee will drop a few slots when they lose to Florida. Nebraska, Illinois, and Maryland are done until the bowls and Colorado has to drop as well if they lose. I’ll stick with my predictions.