Category Archives: Energy

Global Guerrillas: COLLAPSING IRAN

JRobb speculates on how the Bush Misadministration may move against Iran if UN-centered sanctions are blocked by China and/or Russia and–let me tell you–it ain’t good! If you’re not familiar with “effects-based operations” (EBO), think of the first Gulf War with the bomber nose cone footage shown on CNN with bombs (theoreticaly) precisely targeted on key infrastructure and facilities.

That’s how he thinks our Doofus in Chief will try to get the Iranian nuclear program into the dustbin. The more likely result is oli prices will immediately double, triple or more and the nukes, because of Iranian nationalism, geographic realities and protective measures already in place, will still be controlled by the Mad Mullahs. Hooray for our side, eh?

Also posted in Bushinations, Middle East, Politics | Comments Off

You are the company you keep

Foreign Policy’s editors blog is fairly new but they seem to be getting in the swing pretty quickly as you can see in Brutal dictator, welcome to Washington. The post calls out the hypocrisy of the Bush Crew, talking out of both sides of their mouth as usual when it comes to the interests of their oil industry puppetmasters. When Parade Magazine lists you in its Ten Worst Dictators list (I mean seriously, Parade Magazine!) you know the guy must be up to something seriously bad. But Condi shows just how far she’s sunk from her sunny Stanford days by sweetly introducing the guy to the press.

Also posted in Bushinations, Dictators, Politics | Comments Off

Security Future Salon

So tonight the Big Guy and I hauled over to SAP Labs’ very nicely appointed offices for this month’s Future Salon meeting, Security Future Salon, featuring Global Guerillas author John Robb. For most of the audience (40-50 people, clearly more than expected), people who don’t subscribe to Robb’s RSS feeds, this was probably a big, unpleasant revelation.

Having paid attention to his writings on 4GW and the limitations of the national security model, this wasn’t particularly new material for me. No less unpleasant. I wish he’d have spent more time on showing how terrorist lessons learned in Iraq are being exported to Nigeria (which he did at least touch on), Pakistan, Somalia, Chechnya and Colombia but hopefully he’ll blog this stuff in more detail soon.

For someone with his military ties I was pleased to see him explicitly criticize Bush, Rumsfeld and the Administration’s work on pretty much all levels.

Also posted in Bushinations, Politics, Security, terrorism | Comments Off

Lobbying for Billions for Big Oil

“There is no cost,” declared Representative Joe L. Barton, a Texas Republican who was presiding over Congressional negotiations on the sprawling energy bill last July. An obscure provision on new drilling incentives was “so noncontroversial,” he added, that senior House and Senate negotiators had not even discussed it.

Vague Law and Hard Lobbying Add Up to Billions for Big Oil just goes to show that politicians are either in the pocket of the big corporations, stupid or just don’t particularly care about anyone else. I don’t know if the Democrats or anyone in the Congress attempted to stand up on this provision, so I won’t try and attribute blame to just Bush and the Republicans even though this certainly smacks of their style.

But, you know, we voted for these swell folks.

Also posted in Corporations, Politics | Comments Off

U.S. to Give Windfall to Oil Companies

Royalty Plan Windfall to Oil Companies: “The federal government is on the verge of one of the biggest giveaways of oil and gas in American history, worth an estimated $7 billion over five years.” Yeah, record profits mean Bush’s closest corporate aliies need even more help from our deficit-ridden pockets.

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Elevator to the stars

Keith Curtis took advantage of being in the same coffee shop and got an extensive interview with Dr. Bradley Edwards of the SpaceWard Foundation. Edwards is a leading researcher in the effort to develop a space elevator and after working on the concept and then the actual effort for years he can handle what might seem like tough questions easily.

You won’t be surprised to learn that I’m a supporter. As covered in the interview, we’ve really about reached the peak in the oil production curve. Building even one space elevator completely changes the equation. These days we cannot afford to ignore such an opportunity. A couple of the comments question Edwards’ attitude towards NASA involvement but I agree with him: keeping the project in the private sector as much as possible significantly improves the probability of a successful result in far less time.

Curtis does pitch the right questions on engineering, economics and government involvement so it’s worth reading if you want to get filled in.

Also posted in Economics, TheFuture | Comments Off

Rehnquist dies at 80

After a year of thyroid cancer, Chief Justice William Rehnquist died tonight making for a strange end to a strange week. The odd feeling for me is a mix of personal and public and, of course, is in no way intended to make light of the extreme sadness of Katrina and its aftermath or the Chief Justice’s death, just an accurate one word summary of my emotional state.

Nevertheless, filling this seat on the bench will undoubtedly become a political battle of enormous proportion; because of Rehnquist’s long illness, groups on both sides have been banking cash to be used whoever Bush nominates. The John Roberts nomination has instantly become a minor matter even though none of its ramifications has changed in the least.

Instead I’m wondering if this will be, essentially, the straw that breaks everything. Katrina has wreaked devastation in ways that require resources the Federal government, much less the private sector, doesn’t seem to have. Not when we’re spending billions every month in Iraq. And the secondary effects of the storm’s damage will rampage through the economy as well–gas and lumber prices are already rising, hundreds of thousands of jobs are in an unknown state, and the vulnerability of other regions to natural disaster must suddenly be taken far more seriously.

Immediately after Katrina destroyed New Orleans some people were suggesting that we take this as an opportunity to ‘strategically retreat’ from Iraq. Now, with a massive political confrontation on tap as well, this seems an even more prudent choice. I can only hope Bush, Rove and Cheney will agree.

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Also posted in Bushinations, Courts, Economics, Politics | Comments Off

Justins and the long commute

[Responding to a letter in the Merc's 7/20/05 Roadshow column, in which a man named Justin explains his need to live near Sacramento and work in San Jose, 96 mile drive each way.]

While I recognize the reality of housing prices, Justin Oliver’s answer avoids the actual question of wasting a month per year on commuting as well as the high and increasing cost of that commute.
Make some generous estimates, say 47 working weeks, 25 MPG and average price of $2.25 a gallon, and Oliver’s spending over $4000 annually just on the gas. Working locally either out by Sacramento or in San Jose, let’s just guess that the total cost would be equivalent to the difference in maintenance and insurance from the current commute, or that he could use lightrail and leave the car home.

So $325 a month, probably not enough to get that two bedroom, two bath here, maybe it is. However, is it enough to get something good enough so that his quality of life would be better overall? When that child he mentions comes along having, say, 2-3 hours a day more to spend together will surely more than make up for a smaller home.

Finally, what about the environmental cost of that commute, multiplied by all the current and future Justin’s those studies claim are coming? Beyond the direct pollution put out by their cars and trucks, as you’ve written several times, the supply of available gas isn’t getting bigger and most likely will decrease as international competition grows and aging refineries go out of business without replacements. This conflict between gas, housing and jobs is likely to be the major economic issue of the next decade.

Also posted in Environment, Politics | Comments Off

Red storm ahead

Not sure I completely, or even mainly, agree with Lou Dobbs but I surely appreciate the direct, unequivable smackdown on the CNOOC bid for Unocal. Dobbs questions the usefulness of “the default libertarian views of the Bush administration” when national security is involved.

Here’s another of those line drawing situations. Keep government out of business decisions to the extent possible versus the true nature of CNOOC. The Chinese government does own 70% of the company and this move has to be seen as a conscious element of their drive to secure as raw energy stock whenever and wherever it can be had.

From a neutral perspective the Chinese are smart to use this strategy. Their leadership understands the economic effect of peak oil, that even the initial small decrease in supply will cause significant price increases because demand will continue growing. What moves Bush and Co. are making or proposing, such as opening ANWR, offer little hope of improving our position.

Further, American refiners will not be able to reverse the longterm trend of declining capacity so the significance of Unocal’s market share will grow; by 2010, mark my words, any promises regarding continuing delivery to the United States being made now to secure this acquisition will be long forgotten.

Returning to the opening questions, the line for me is pretty clear: China cannot expect us to allow them to play by the same rules as other foreign acquirers when they don’t offer us similar chances. Even if they did America cannot (continue to) ignore true national security demands.

Also posted in Bushinations, Economics | Comments Off

For further reading: Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash

Also posted in Bushinations, Economics | Comments Off