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[Too long to leave as just a comment on Aaron's original post and no trackback there, so also copied here...]
The growth of human population (going forward) isn’t quite as dire as presented here, recent studies have shown that rather than reaching well into the eight digit range in 50-60 years we will max out around 9B. This is still, no doubt, far too many humans.
Population control measures in China are having a substantial effect, though not necessarily in a pleasant way, and in fact causing a secondary problem that could have been forseen but wasn’t–since most families decided if they were only having one child it had to be a boy, young Chinese men are finding out that there aren’t enough girls to go around. Also, both China and India are encountering the same increased prosperity leading to fewer children effect as seen for some time in the West.
Also changing the growth picture are terrible numbers of early deaths due to disease in Africa–mainly AIDs, which along with HIV now infects over 30% of the population in some countries. A secondary effect here has been the orphaning of millions of children who have no adults willing or able to take them in and who will, as a result, most likely never become healthy adults nor have children who survive to have their own. A lesser impact on population increase has been the collapse of a few large economies like Russia, where the life expectancy has fallen below 55 years and is accompanied by fewer children surviving past infancy.
Then we have the risks (mentioned above) represented by diseases like Avian Flu, deaths and destabilization by the disaffected groups like Al Qaeda and South American communist cadres (and don’t think their linkage with drug cartels won’t keep them in business for many years) and the increasing odds that one deranged person with the right knowledge and access will unleash a devestating virus.
Last thing: Aside from these physical concerns I also fear that we now are living at the best time in human history and that, in years to come, it will be seen as such by anyone remembering it. We will hit a Singularity and odds are better than even it will not be the Vingean idealized version, or even a Strossian some good/some bad, but one where people stare at the odd mass-produced book (or fancy home theater speaker) and ask what the heck that is.
Update, 8/4/5: The discussion continues over at Aaron’s site.
Basil Jason Go
Metro Manila, Philippines
More Furious than a Forest Fire
People who have read population control articles have probably heard of the English economist Thomas Malthus who proposed that population increases at a geometric rate whereas food supply grows at an arithmetic rate if factors are held constant. Probably, Malthus’ Principle of Population is not so improbable after all when studies show that approximately 790 million people in the developing world are still chronically undernourished, almost two-thirds of whom reside in Asia and the Pacific.
In the Philippines, due to the Church’ heavy opposition against artificial birth-control methods and the masses’ lack of sex education, the problem of overpopulation continues to persist. What makes matters worse is that the natural family planning methods are somewhat hard to instill in the minds of the Filipinos especially those that are not so educated. What solution do I propose then? I believe that the government should start implementing a policy similar to that of China’s one-child per family. I repeat similar and not exactly, since what right do we have to impose how many children a couple would want to have? Hence, I am not saying that the government should immediately implement the one-child per family policy here. I think it would be best if the Filipino community would first agree upon a consensus on the number of children they would want to have.
In line with this, the current tax system in the Philippines of giving a tax exemption of P8,000 per dependent child not exceeding four seems not to be very effective since there are a lot of people still have more than four children. Instead, I think it would be better if from the agreed upon number, the government can give more incentives to those who follow the quota. Given this, it would be more attractive for the people, especially the masses, to have lesser children. For instance, if the set quota of children is four and the family only has two children, then there should be an additional incentive for this family. Unlike China’s one-child policy, I believe that there should be no penalty if a couple exceeds the quota since the couple has the right to have as many children as they want. Although this entails a lot of discipline for those who will implement it, I believe that this a step in the right direction for curbing the population growth in the Philippines.
Currently, the Philippine population is around 89 million, growing at a rate of 1.8 percent. In ten years, the population will reach 107 million, an increase of about 20 percent. Clearly, the figures speak for themselves. With the present population growth rate, the supply of resources such as food, shelter and clothing won’t be able to meet demand. Population growth is like a forest fire, we have to do something about it now. If we don’t, when is the right time?